June Swoon: What's Behind the Giants' Slump?

Ever since the Washington Nationals came into town on June 9, the San Francisco Giants have been spiraling downward.

The first game against the Nationals came a day after the Giants finished off a sweep of the New York Mets. When San Francisco won the second game of the series in come-from-behind, walk-off fashion, Giants broadcaster Mike Krukow even said, “All they do is win.”

The sweep of the Mets gave the Giants a 42-21 record. They had five fewer losses than any other National League team and their division lead over the second-place Los Angeles Dodgers was a season-high 9.5 games.

But since the Nationals strolled into town, it has seemed that all the Giants do is lose.

Counting the first game against Washington (an ugly 9-2 drubbing at AT&T Park), the Giants have gone 3-11 since sweeping the Mets. Their division lead, as of June 24th, is 3 games. 

What’s behind the slump in which the Giants have managed to win just 21.4% of their last 14 games after winning an MLB-best 66.7% of their previous 64?

The pitching, power, and steals have disappeared. Have a look for yourself:

Pitching

Games	RA/G	ERA	H/G	BB/G	K/G
Last 14	5.4	5.12	8.9	2.7	6.4
First 64	3.3	3.07	7.8	2.5	7.7

Offense

Games	RS/G	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR/G	SB/G
Last 14	3.4	.263	.312	.374	0.5	0.1
First 64	4.3	.248	.310	.406	1.1	0.5

San Francisco has allowed, on average, 2.1 more runs per game than they did in their previous 64 games. They’ve also scored 0.9 fewer runs.

The pitching, as you can see, is the bigger issue. Strikeouts are down, walks and hits are up. Most of all, it's always going to hurt when you’re allowing 5.4 runs per game.

On offense, the batting averages and on-base percentages have actually gone up in the last 14 days. The noticeable drop has been in slugging percentage.

This is largely due to the lack of home runs. The Giants hit 1.1 home runs per game in their first 64 games, just 0.5 in their last 14. 

Another noteworthy decline has been the stolen bases. With Angel Pagan nursing a nagging back injury, the Giants aren’t stealing as many bases. They stole a base every two games in their first 64 games, but in their last 14 they’re only stealing about one base every ten.

Look for the pitching to improve. It’s next to impossible that the Giants will continue to slump to anywhere near a 5.12 ERA.

Expect the Giants to find their way back to the mean--a 3.43 ERA and 4.2 runs scored per game.

Once that happens, the Giants will go back to playing like one of the best teams in baseball.